Predicting the Future of 40K

Curse my lack of Prescience

About two years ago I started posing my multi-part C:SM 6th Edition Codex Wishlist (see here, here, and here). Granted, these were more wants than predictions, but when the codex finally came out, it was obvious that I wasn't particularly good at forecasting the kinds of changes that we did see (here and here). Despite that, it's still fun to try to predict the direction of 40K.

The Current State
As is becoming apparent, GW is likely to bring all of its codexes up to 6th/7th Edition standards within the next year. The Dark Eldar codex is expected to be released later this month, leaving only Necrons, Blood Angels, and Sisters of Battle without a hardcover 6th/7th Edition codex (I don't count Inquisition since it's not one of the classic, established armies). I would guess that new codexes and the associated models are GW's primary source of income, meaning that they'll have to keep producing something to stay in business.

The 'rule set that was here to stay', 6th Edition, was replaced within two years. But 7th Edition was essentially a slightly revised and expanded version of 6th Edition, which suggests to me that GW saw some things they didn't like with 6th and decided that they wanted a more polished rule set to be 'the one to stay'. Seventh Edition also left the door wide open for army builds (e.g., Lords of War, Super-heavies, Formations and non-traditional Detachments, non-traditional allies), giving GW little reason to revise the rulebook anytime soon and all the reason in the world to encourage gamers to build enormous armies with an unprecedented amount of variety.

Models, Models, Models
This is a safe bet. There are still a lot of resin and metal models out there, some of which are for popular units; e.g., the Space Marine Thunderfire Cannon, the Zoanthrope, all Sisters of Battle). Even the fancy Inquisition and Assassin units that GW is pushing are predominately in Finecast or pewter.

I would buy this model in a heartbeat if it were made of plastic

In most circles, Finecast still has a bad reputation, with many gamers like myself simply refusing to buy the stuff. Thus, I expect GW to keep pushing out kits to replace as many Finecast/pewter models as possible. I also expect them to continue producing mono-pose HQs and/or named characters (complete with dataslates, where necessary). As much as I hate the price tags on these models (the Librarian I just bought has a retail price of $30), they look great. I would be even more willing to buy a jump pack Chaplain or a Librarian in Terminator armor for the same cost. I'd probably pay even more for a plastic Master of the Forge.

Oh, and I want a plastic Thunderhawk.

I would easily spend $200 for that

Codexes
Contrary to my expectations, 7th Edition codexes ended up being different from the 6th Edition codexes. The biggest changes include reduced opportunities for shifting units from one Force Organization slot to another (this is most notable for Grey Knights), alternate Force Organization charts (probably intended to compensate for the first change), and the movement of major HQ choices into the Lord of War slot.

Where's your Draigo-wing now?

That leaves several 6th Edition codexes with a few less restrictions than the newer ones (e.g., Deathwing Terminators, Wraithguard, and Space Marine bikes can still be made troops with the right HQs while beasts like Marneus Calgar are still HQs) but a bit less flexibility (the older codexes are still restricted to the traditional Force Organization chart).

I would guess that GW will start revising the 6th Edition codexes, possibly aiming for a release within three years after the last update (e.g., a new Codex: Chaos Space Marines before October 2015). The bulk of the changes would simply bring them in line with the 7th Edition codexes by eliminating the shifting of certain units from one Force Organization slot to another, adding new and fluffy alternate Force Organizations, and moving characters like Calgar into the Lord of War slot.

This would also be the perfect opportunity to fix the problems that have become apparent in certain codexes. The consensus seems to be that Chaos Space Marines and Dark Angels could use a few strategic points adjustments or some boosts (I'm no fan of the Ruinous Powers, but Chaos Space Marines should not run away if they lose combat) while Eldar could be toned down a bit.

Dataslates and Formations
That GW will keep producing dataslates seems obvious. They're cheap and easy to produce and distribute. To GW's benefit, they encourage gamers to buy models they wouldn't have bought otherwise or to buy them in previously unthinkable quantities. An otherwise undesirable model might get special rules that make it worth taking or a dataslate might allow a player to bring more HQ, Elite, Fast Attack, or Heavy Support units than would normally be allowed (and therefore purchased).

So many Terminators...

For example, until he got Dataslate: Helbrutes, the 40K Cabal's Chaos Space Marine player was very unhappy with his underperforming multi-melta Helbrute (any C:SM player will tell you that a multi-melta Dreadnought without a drop pod is pretty useless). Now the other members of the Cabal have to worry about a trio of Deep Striking Helbrutes showing up in their rear lines.

As for me, with five Terminators, eight Assault Terminators, and a Terminator Captain, I figured I was done buying Terminator models. Now, thanks to the Strike Force Ultra dataslate (20 Terminators plus a Terminator Captain), I've found myself buying even more of them.

While being a cash cow for GW, I think dataslates also benefit the gamers by keeping existing codexes fresh and allowing the development of new strategies and an endless variety of builds.

I'll take an Ultramarines 1st
Company Supplement, please

Supplements
I'll finish with the dataslate's big brother. I had thought that GW gave up on these when the rumored Raven Guard and White Scars supplements failed to turn up and GW started cranking out dataslates. Now that the two existing 7th Edition codexes have supplements (Waaagh! Ghazkull and Champions of Fenris, respectively) and the Dark Eldar codex is rumored to have at least one supplement, it looks like GW may be dedicated to producing them after all.

These are also no-brainers. Like dataslates they keep a codex fresh and encourage gamers to buy more models, but with their expanded scope, they inspire fluff-minded gamers to build entire armies around the Supplement rather than just one or two smaller detachments.

I suspect that a 7th Edition Space Marine codex would be more generic in its builds while Supplements would allow more specialization than was previously available; e.g., Mounted Assault would be removed from the parent codex and a similar rule or a Force Organization that promotes the use of bikes would be provided in a White Scars Supplement. A Raven Guard Supplement, on the other hand, could allow the use of more jump pack units.

Grey Knights, Rumors, Warhammer Fantasy, and New Armies in the Cabal

Recently I've spent a lot of time preparing models for my traditional pre-winter priming, meaning that this blog and my general interest blog have been thoroughly neglected. Fortunately, there's nothing like a post of miscellanea for keeping the blog current:

Grey Knights

GW's release of the Grey Knights codex certainly took the community by surprise. After months of whispering about Dark Eldar, Space Wolves, etc., the rumormongers somehow completely missed that Codex: Grey Knights was to be the next release.

It was also a bit surprising that the Grey Knights received no new models or units. I supposed it made some sense; Grey Knights already had a lot of beautiful plastic models from 5th Edition whereas many of the new models that other armies got with their 6th or 7th Edition codexes were actually just plastic replacements for Finecast or pewter models rather than new units. Still, I half expected Grey Knights to get a pre-existing kit like the Stalker.

I still haven't played against Carl's Grey Knights under the new codex, so I don't know how much of a challenge they'll be. From what I've seen of the rules, though, I'd hate to play Daemons against them.

Rumors
And speaking of unexpected releases, it seems like the accuracy of rumors has become extremely poor in recent months. With Space Marines, we knew the entirety of the Space Marine codex a month in advance. The rumors nailed several details of the Tau and Eldar codexes early on. And the general idea of Imperial Knights was circulating almost a year before their release. Several rumors even predicted that we'd see a 7th Edition well before it was expected, and they even got some of the details right. However, certain rumors about 7th were aggressively wrong. Remember when a "reliable source" insisted that 7th Edition was moving towards a percentage-based force organization with "sideboards" catering to the tournament crowd? Fortunately, it didn't take long for White Dwarf leaks to show us that the truth was the exact opposite and we were going to get a ruleset that gave us extremely permissive "Battle-forged" armies and even more permissive "Unbound" armies.

I'd seen plenty of inaccurate rumors in the past, but it seems like they've been particularly bad recently. Rumormongers have been completely missing huge releases while giving us outrageously incorrect information and downright fantasies.

Where's my plastic Thunderhawk? Oh, right, GW
is still trying to get it to fit on six sprues.

How often did we hear that Guard would finally get those artillery kits that were previously available only from Forge World? It was only on the eve of the codex's release that we heard that, instead of new models, those artillery units had simply been removed from the codex. In their place, Guard ended up with the Wyvern. The Tyranid release was similar; units that were rumored to be getting models instead disappeared from the codex.

Were any of the long-standing Ork rumors true? (Grot-based armies? Choppas that had an AP value on the charge?) Did any rumors predict the Gorkanaut or the drastic changes to Mob Rule before the White Dwarf leaks? How often did we hear of a Dark Eldar/Blood Angels starter set before the Ork/Space Wolves collection and the Sanctus Reach Campaign took us by surprise?

Until the White Dwarf images leaked, how many rumors anticipated Logan Grimnar's chariot or the Stormwolf? Even while GW was rolling out new Space Wolves products, rumors incorrectly predicted that certain HQs would be getting plastic models.

And then Codex: Grey Knights, enormous Warhammer Fantasy kits, and the Nagash book simply dropped out of the sky while those with "inside information" were yammering about Dark Eldar, Necrons, Blood Angels, and Brettonians.

I've reached the point where, unless a rumor is  accompanied by photos, I simply don't believe it.

And Speaking of Fantasy...
The models of Nagash and his Mortarchs are absolutely amazing. I love my Space Marines' model line, but the Fantasy players seem to get some of the best toys. If I weren't already overwhelmed with piles of unfinished Ultramarines, these new releases (and earlier releases like the Vampire Lord on Zombie Dragon or the Coven Throne) would almost certainly convince me to start an Undead army.

They almost tempt me to play Fantasy

Several of the Cabal members are seriously considering starting Fantasy armies. Interestingly, as was the case with 40K, none of us are interested in the same armies. Bryce would do a Goblin-dominated Orcs & Goblins army, Jon would do Dwarves, Jake would field Lizardmen, and (if I were a faster modeler) I would want a Vampire Counts army led by Nagash.

Army Changes In the 40K Cabal
In the right column of this blog is a brief introduction to the members of our gaming group and the armies they play. After staying nearly constant for a while, I've had to update it recently (and learned this week that I'm going to have to revise it again) due to shuffling in some of our members' armies.

A few months ago, Bryce sold his Tau army to Jake, who is now trying to sell his Dark Angels to fund the Greater Good. Jake had really wanted to field a Ravenwing bike army but found that the Dark Angels' 2nd Company isn't particularly competitive on its own. When he played one or two games with Bryce's Tau and finally got to look through their codex (where he realized that he loved the fluff), Jake knew that the army was for him. It's always sad to see a friend fall into heresy.

In the meantime, always eager to try a new army, Bryce has since started a Raven Guard Space Marine army led by Shadow Captain Shrike. Although he hasn't actively played Space Marines in years, Bryce has loved the Raven Guard's fluff for quite some time. After playing Tau and Imperial Guard for so long, it's entertaining to watch him try to get used to an assault-oriented army again.

I've considered starting a second army for at least a couple years, but I've finally conceded that I'm rather fond of my Ultramarines and that I should actually put a dent in my pile of unfinished models before I start a new army. However, I do have a couple of unbuilt Imperial Knight models, which are eager to join the Ultramarines as an Imperial Knight Detachment.

Finally, to the great surprise of the rest of the Cabal, our Ork player bought the last Stormclaw box from Jake's HobbyTown this week. No, it wasn't for the Ork models (except for Face-rippa, he wasn't really impressed with the selection of greenskin units); it was for the Space Wolves. He even picked up the Space Wolves codex while he was there. That's right, one of our most diehard Xenos players will be bringing another loyalist Space Marine army to our tables, conveniently replacing the soon-to-be departed Dark Angels.

Although Jon claims it could be a year before he actually plays them, he's so excited about his new models that I predict that we'll be seeing Space Wolves a lot earlier than that.